Belarus: an election without an opposition

Exiled journalist and John Smith Fellow Hanna Liubakova offers an analysis of the political climate in Belarus as President Lukashenka gears up for an election engineered to extend his 30-year rule.

The mood in Belarus in the run-up to this month’s election is a “stark contrast” to that of the last election in August 2020, according to Hanna, an analyst at the Atlantic Council and an award-winning freelance journalist. She says: “In 2020, there was a lot of enthusiasm, optimism and hope. Despite the brutal state of terror, despite all the arrests, repression and torture. People were still very hopeful because they saw how many protestors were on the streets.”

In the months and years that followed the 2020 election, the Lukashenka regime stepped up its repression of all opposition. Political activists, journalists and others opposed to the regime were either arrested or forced into exile.

“I had to leave the country at the end of August 2020,” says Hanna, who took part in our 2023/24 Belarus leaders in exile fellowship programme. “As I followed the news, it was difficult seeing friends and colleagues being arrested daily. And for those of us in exile, it’s difficult knowing we’re not able to go home. Now, instead of hope, I think there’s a lot of frustration and disengagement.”

No genuine opposition

In 2020, although Lukashenka arrested and jailed rivals including Siarhei Tsikhanouski and Viktar Babaryka, he allowed Tsikhanouski’s wife, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, to register as a candidate. The opposition united behind her and she claimed victory in the election. “He thought she wasn’t dangerous,” says Hanna. “He will not allow this mistake to happen again.”

The only potential candidates allowed to register for the 2025 elections are Lukashenka’s supporters. “These are people we’ve seen in the system before,” says Hanna. “They will say, ‘We’re running with Lukashenka, not against him.’”

The only permitted form of ‘campaigning’ is flash mobs supporting Lukashenka. These tend to be employees of state-run companies or institutions, where the regime can easily pressure people. Hanna explains: “People gather and record a short message to Lukashenka saying, ‘We need you to run.’ Then he’ll say, ‘If the people need me to, I will run in this election.’”

Political prisoners

In another development, the regime has released 227 political prisoners since the summer of 2024. Hanna thinks it’s unlikely this was motivated by a desire to improve the human rights situation. “Lukashenka was probably checking the mood,” she says. “He wants Belarusians to see him as a leader who can pardon people and show forgiveness.

“It could also be a way to reach out to democratic countries who have criticised him for human rights violations. However, at the same time as people were being released, even more people were being added to the list of political prisoners. That shows it’s not genuine.”

International audience

As a journalist in exile, Hanna’s current work has several strands. “I work a bit differently to other Belarusian journalists because I focus on an international audience,” she says.

Hanna’s action plan for her John Smith Trust fellowship is to create a newsletter to brief policymakers and other international experts on developments in Belarus. “When I was in the UK, through the fellowship programme, I met with Tortoise Media, who also produce a newsletter. They’ve given me many insights and it’s been very helpful,” she says.

“I also met with parliamentarians and researchers. It was interesting to discuss the UK’s involvement in helping Ukraine, how this was changing, and the mood among British people. The connections I made during my trip have been super helpful and expanded my opportunities.”

Independent media

Hanna also works as a consultant for Belarusian independent media outlets, connecting them with international newsrooms and researching ways to reach audiences inside Belarus. This is challenging as visiting a banned website can result in a prison sentence.

Despite this, Hanna believes there are opportunities for independent media to connect with this audience. “In Belarus, there’s a lot of distrust in state TV and the propaganda they’re attempting on social media hasn’t been successful. It’s yet to be convincing, effective and engaging.

“I work with the outlets that have their outreach on platforms like YouTube, TikTok and Instagram. Between 75% and 90% of their content is read by an audience inside Belarus.”

Sanctions against the regime

So what, if anything, can the UK and other Western democratic states do to influence the situation in Belarus? Hanna suggests one approach could be sanctioning more people associated with the regime.

“Sanctions impose moral and psychological pressure on people inside the system,” says Hanna. “But only 287 people have been sanctioned by the EU, while Belarus has 1,300 political prisoners. There is an army of enablers involved in this – judges, prosecutors, propagandists, security forces, the KGB and parliamentarians.”

Among these enablers is the judge who recently sentenced Hanna to 10 years in prison in absentia. “He’s not even sanctioned,” says Hanna. “He can travel. I could pass him on the street somewhere in the EU. But he is very much involved in the repression. He has also sentenced prominent political prisoners who are in jail.”

Diplomacy and accountability

From a geopolitical perspective, Hanna argues that the West should not ignore her country’s strategic position. “It’s important given both the threats from Lukashenka and the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus,” she says. “We can see how it destabilises Europe and there should be a strategy to tackle that. The UK can show leadership as it has with Ukraine.”

As one of the countries that launched the International Accountability Platform for Belarus (IAPB), the UK can continue to support efforts to hold the regime accountable for its ongoing human rights violations. Hanna says: “People are still arrested daily. People die in jail. People are kept incommunicado in jail. Collecting the data is important but must lead to legal processes, like Lithuania’s recent International Criminal Court referral.”

She adds: “The UK has also been supportive of independent media and civil society organisations – many of which have been forced to relocate. This must not stop because they are a bridge with people inside my country.”