Moldova must defend its democratic values
Russia’s interference in Moldova’s EU referendum and presidential election is a wake-up call we must not ignore, say John Smith Fellows Olimpia Gribincea and Ilie Chirtoacă.
Moldova’s EU referendum delivered a shock to supporters of European integration, among them President Maia Sandu. The poll on 20 October saw 50.38% vote in favour of closer integration with the EU, while 49.62% voted against. The ‘yes’ vote won with a majority of just 0.76%.
Moldova has a population of 2.5 million, while another 1 million Moldovans live abroad. The diaspora population saved the day, with 76% of voters supporting closer EU ties.
The knife-edge result highlighted the massive scale of Russian interference in the election process. Their tactics included spreading emotional disinformation and false narratives about the EU on social media platforms like TikTok and Telegram. Activists and influencers were paid to distribute propaganda and recruit new sympathisers, while evidence of vote-buying was uncovered.
Presidential election
When she called the referendum, Sandu had banked on a strong pro-EU vote to provide a mandate to continue along the path towards integration. The slim majority failed to achieve this and threatened her concurrent presidential election campaign.
In the two weeks leading up to the run-off against pro-Russian candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo, Sandu galvanised her supporters, winning the second round with 54% of the vote. Among the challenges she now faces is a society highly polarised in its attitude towards Europe. Overcoming this challenge will be crucial ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Weakness of institutions
While seeing how effectively Russia can manipulate Moldovan public opinion is of huge concern, it is not a new problem. Russian interference started long before the war in Ukraine and plays on existing social divisions and public mistrust in our state institutions, particularly the police, information and security services and judiciary. So why did we not pay attention to this threat until it almost derailed our European ambitions?
One answer lies in the low capacity of Moldova’s institutions and the efficient way Russia has exploited their weaknesses. For many years, Russia’s strategy has been to infiltrate our institutions at the highest level, including our Parliament, government agencies and armed forces. It also provides financial backing to political parties and representatives that serve its interests and sustain a pro-Russian electorate.
Regrettably, this strategy has proved successful because people who engage in disinformation, electoral corruption and funding of violent protests are not held accountable. Investigations and trials are slow because our judicial processes are inefficient, and our institutions lack capacity.
Romania election
We can see parallels between Russia’s interference in Moldova’s EU referendum and its attempts to sway the result of Romania’s presidential election. Both campaigns relied heavily on social media platforms like Telegram and TikTok to mobilise networks of “volunteers” and distribute propaganda and disinformation, bolstered by local influencers.
The constitutional court’s decision to annul the presidential election in Romania is a positive sign. It shows states are willing to fight back against electoral interference and defend democracy. At the same time, it has plunged Romania into political uncertainty. And the fact that a Russia-aligned candidate came from nowhere to win the first round of the presidential vote reveals the vulnerabilities of democracies, especially in populations with low digital literacy. It also speaks of Romanians’ disaffection with their political leaders.
The annulment of the election may prompt Russia to use even more sophisticated techniques that are harder to detect and counter, such as artificial intelligence, deepfakes, covert social media operations. It may be further emboldened as global attention is diverted to other challenges including the war in Gaza, a new regime in Syria, political turmoil in France and Germany, and the forthcoming Trump presidency.
Countering disinformation
With parliamentary elections on the horizon, what can Moldova do to prepare for and counter Russian interference?
One immediate action the government must take is to support key intelligence and security institutions to prevent criminal activities related to election interference. The National Bank of Moldova needs to enhance monitoring of suspicious financial transactions, and the authorities must investigate and hold accountable civil servants involved in Russian-funded schemes.
Civil society organisations can play an important role in exploring more effective ways to counter disinformation, especially on platforms like TikTok. We need to invest in digital literacy campaigns, enhanced cyber security and consider tighter regulations for social media platforms. The authorities must also improve communication about the benefits of EU integration for rural and vulnerable populations
Courage for reform
In the longer term, addressing poverty and economic development is vital to reducing vulnerability to vote-buying schemes and propaganda. Moldova needs support to transform its institutions so that public servants have the capacity and courage for reform.
The referendum has been a wake-up call for all of us in Moldova to defend our democratic values and freedoms and resist those who want to pull us back into Russia’s orbit. For our European allies, including the UK, there’s a window of opportunity to support Moldova to remain on the right track. It’s vital not to lose it.
Biographies
Ilie Chirtoacă is the executive director of the think tank Legal Resources Centre in Moldova, where he leads the organisation’s efforts to combat corruption and enhance public sector integrity in the country. He is also a John Smith Fellow (Moldova, 2023).
Olimpia Gribincea (nee Iovu) is the in-country director of the National Center for State Courts and a John Smith Fellow (Moldova, 2012).